2026's Best Shot At Its Second $1 Billion Movie Is Toy Story 5

Toy Story 5‘s early box office results – and how they compare to the franchise’s prior efforts – means the film is currently 2026’s best chance at getting a second movie that earns $1 billion is currently part-way through its theatrical run. Plenty of years have found themselves with a wide number of movies that earn over $1 billion, though this is a matter that naturally varies year to year.

It’s also something that naturally varies depending on the wider ecosystem around cinema at this time, with the post-pandemic period and its economic effects going some way to explain why there have generally only been a few movies each year that have managed to break this colossal bar and become some of the most successful films of all time by doing so.

Interestingly enough, the Toy Story movie series has previously had a release that’s entered into the $1 billion box office club, and the way Toy Story 5 already compares up to this predecessor suggests it’s very much primed to replicate its success so long as fortune is on the film’s side – which would make it the second movie to pass this threshold for 2026 thus far.

Toy Story 5’s Opening Box Office Sets Up A $1 Billion Win Based On Toy Story 4’s Results

Blaze in Toy Story 5 smiling and looking at a computer

Toy Story 5‘s box office results are a major feat for the movie this early into its theatrical run, as the film has garnered $312 worldwide in the course of less than a week (all box office numbers as per Box Office Mojo and The Numbers), which is no small amount to gross in this time to say the least. Not only is this one of the best opening box office results of 2026, it’s also one of the best openings the Toy Story series has experienced in its entire decades-long run.

Even Toy Story 4 – which grossed over $1 billion in its own theatrical run – notably made less in its own opening period, with the 2019 film garnering around $120 million in its opening compared to Toy Story 5‘s comparative $160 million opening some seven years later.

While there’s a lot of other factors that go into a film hitting $1 billion, and the post-pandemic period has seen fewer films hit this milestone than the wealth of movies that managed this feat in 2019, altogether the signs certainly are there that Toy Story 5 could become 2026’s second billion dollar grossing movie, especially given the positive reviews and reception to the film are sure to bolster its long-term legs in cinemas.

Smarty Pants, Atlas, Snappy, Bullseye, and Jessie looking curiously out of a door in Toy Story 5

The only current 2026 movie to have made over a billion in its worldwide box office itself helps to support the idea that Toy Story 5 is capable of hitting this mark. Right now, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is 2026’s top grossing film, with its $1 billion box office building on the success of The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and owing a good portion of its success to its ability to appeal to both children and adults, since this allows it to have a truly broad target audience.

Given Toy Story 5 is also building off a popular pre-existing franchise that has the same kind of time-tested universal audience appeal for people from many different walks of life, it stands to reason that the similarity between the two films in this regard means it’s all the more easy to see how the new 2026 release could be the second movie to hit the $1 billion mark for this year, even if this still isn’t guaranteed.

With Toy Story 5 still less than a week into its theatrical run – and already in the ninth spot for 2026’s box office results already – there’s plenty of time left to see whether the Pixar movie can and will hit this major benchmark, and in doing so paint an even clearer picture for us about what films need to do in order to pull in these kinds of staggering theatrical numbers.