Will Toy Story 4 Cross The $1 Billion Mark?


Toy Story 4 characters in the sky

Every Toy Story movie has grown in worldwide grosses, with Toy Story 3 making history for Pixar when it passed the $1 billion mark. So will that be the case for Toy Story 4 or will this film be the growth exception?

As of Sunday, August 4, Toy Story 4 has made $959,250,743 worldwide, from $410 million at the domestic box office and $549.2 million from the foreign markets.

That total includes the roughly $7.15 million the fourth Toy Story movie just made at the domestic box office from August 2-4, 2019. That placed Toy Story 4 at #5 on the box office charts, with a drop of 31.6% from last week, which is normal. The movie only lost 385 screens from last week to now, and it’s still playing in a very healthy 3,225 theaters. That’s a lot of screens for a movie that’s been out since June 21.

So Toy Story 4 needs about $40 million to pass the $1 billion mark, but it would take over $100 million to pass Toy Story 3. I can see it tackling the former goal, but I don’t think it has legs strong enough to pass Toy Story 3.

Here are the worldwide grosses for the Toy Story franchise so far (unadjusted for inflation), per Box Office Mojo:

Toy Story (1995) – $373,554,033
Toy Story 2 (1999) – $497,366,869
Toy Story 3 (2010) – $1,066,969,703
Toy Story 4 (2019) – $959,250,743 (so far)

All four Toy Story movies have either 100% or near 100% ratings on Rotten Tomatoes, and three have “A” CinemaScores, with Toy Story 2 earning a rare “A+.”

As Forbes noted, the Toy Story franchise is on the verge of crossing $3 billion total. It’s currently at $2,929,400,000 worldwide. Will Toy Story 4 be able to make the $70+ million needed to push the entire franchise past the $3B mark? I’m not sure, but I’m not willing to take a strong stand against it.

Most of Toy Story 4‘s 2019 Disney/Marvel buddies have already passed the $1 billion mark — including Avengers: Endgame, Captain Marvel, Aladdin, Spider-Man: Far From Home, and The Lion King. (Bless poor Dumbo. He never stood a chance.) Aladdin came out in late May and kept quietly making money every week until it passed $1B, and now it’s at $1.025 billion and still going. It’s at #9 this week on the domestic box office chart, just a few places behind Toy Story 4. So it makes sense to think Toy Story 4 will also pass $1B, it’s just not operating at the lightning speed of the Marvel movies or The Lion King.

Unlike some blockbusters, which see a huge gap between the domestic and foreign box offices, it’s pretty close for Toy Story 4 with $410M/$549M so far. Contrast that to Aladdin with $350.3 million domestic/$675.2 million foreign. Also, Toy Story 3 made $415 million domestic and $651.9 million at the foreign box office. So Toy Story 4 will be able to pass Toy Story 3 at the U.S./Canada box office, but it has some making up to do overseas.

Do you think Toy Story 4 will make the $40 million it needs from here to make $1 billion? What about the $70 billion for the franchise to pass $3 billion? Does it have a shot of topping Toy Story 3? Vote in the poll below.

How Much Money Will Toy Story 4 Make?

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